On the 102 games of E02's design, Qwen3.5-4B forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit still submits rules that contradict the evidence it has seen: at least 10% of its submissions contradict at least one seed, experiment or counterexample shown before them (diagnose's contradicting). Every E1 system that ran 10 or more experiments a game stayed below 10% (GPT-6 Luna 8.7%, DeepSeek-V4-Flash 1.7%, Qwen3.8-27B 1.2%). Read only if forcing narrowed the evidence: the forced arm's median classes alive at the first submission is at most 10.

{
  "wording": "On the 102 games of E02's design, Qwen3.5-4B forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit still submits rules that contradict the evidence it has seen: at least 10% of its submissions contradict at least one seed, experiment or counterexample shown before them (diagnose's contradicting). Every E1 system that ran 10 or more experiments a game stayed below 10% (GPT-6 Luna 8.7%, DeepSeek-V4-Flash 1.7%, Qwen3.8-27B 1.2%). Read only if forcing narrowed the evidence: the forced arm's median classes alive at the first submission is at most 10.",
  "predicate": {
    "type": "concept",
    "key": "at_least"
  },
  "roles": [
    {
      "role": "subject",
      "definition": "The model and setting under test.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "Qwen/Qwen3.5-4B bf16, revision 851bf6e8, on ZendoBench 1.0.0's MLX batch driver with E1's settings: Qwen3.5 thinking sampling (temperature 1.0, top-p 0.95, top-k 20, min-p 0, presence penalty 1.5), thinking budget 63,487 plus a 2,048-token answer allowance (65,536 a call), 36 games in flight, sampler seed 0, player agent-tools."
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "intervention",
      "definition": "What changes against the baseline.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "Forced experimenting: until the player has run 16 experiments, the observation's available_actions is [\"experiment\"] and the answer grammar is ZendoBench's experiment-only variant; the system prompt states the rule. The gate also opens if one more experiment would leave the remaining submissions unaffordable (budget 30, experiment 1, submission 3, at most 2 submissions)."
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "outcome",
      "definition": "The measure compared with the threshold.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "The share of the arm's submissions that contradict at least one evidence scene shown before them: zendo_bench diagnose's contradicting, over all 102 games."
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "threshold",
      "definition": "The level the outcome must reach.",
      "value": {
        "type": "decimal",
        "value": "0.10",
        "unit": "share of submissions"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "items",
      "definition": "The games the prediction is about.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "The 102 games of E02's design on ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev: the first 2 items of each family (--per-family 2), T1 10, T2 14, T3 20, T4 10, T5 34, T6 14; 92 T2-T6 games."
      }
    }
  ]
}