Small models: a stopping problem or a hypothesis-tracking problem?

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Small models: a stopping problem or a hypothesis-tracking problem?

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #49

Research checkpoint

E2 is complete: A9-A11 against E1's A8 on the same 102 dev games (first 2 items per family; 92 T2-T6). Forcing Qwen3.5-4B to run 16 experiments raised its T2-T6 win rate from 0.000 to 0.191 (paired +0.191 [0.095, 0.287]; P36 supports H1) and narrowed the evidence to a median of 2 consistent classes at the first submission, yet 0.513 of its submissions contradicted evidence it had been shown (A8 on the same games: 0.217; P37 supports H2). Showing the count of consistent rules raised experimenting slightly (+0.42 [0.10, 0.74] a game; P38 supports H3) with no win difference measured (+0.049 [-0.010, 0.107], P39), and once forced, adding the count showed no difference measured either (+0.033 [-0.057, 0.122], P40). By the decision table, the 4B has both a stopping problem and a hypothesis-tracking problem. Descriptively, after forcing an ideal player would win with mean probability 0.70 at the 4B's first submission, above E1's leaders' 0.58-0.62, yet the 4B won 0.29 of the T2-T6 games such a player would be expected to win, against 0.86-0.88 for the leaders (win probabilities over all games including T1, conversion over T2-T6 games; the leaders' figures over E1's games, not these).

Research checkpoint

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #48

Status reported · E2

Completed · @stw2
Is Qwen3.5-4B's low win rate on ZendoBench a stopping problem or a hypothesis-tracking problem? Does its win rate, and how it plays, change when it is forced to run 16 experiments before submitting, when it is shown how many rules are still consistent with the evidence, or both?

All three arms played the 102 dev games, every game verified (A9 show, A10 force16, A11 force16-show; A9 resumed once after a power loss, the same attempt). Findings P28-P41 are linked: estimates P28-P30 and A8's baseline on the same games P31-P32, profiles P33-P35, and the pre-registered tests P36 (H1 supported: force16 - A8 +0.191 [0.095, 0.287]), P37 (H2 supported: 0.513 of force16's submissions contradict the evidence) and P38 (H3 supported: show - A8 +0.42 [0.10, 0.74] experiments a game), with the remaining pre-registered comparisons P39-P41. Results and code: experiments/E02-small-model-interventions at 5599dc1.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #47

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), when Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) is shown how many rule classes are still consistent, also forcing it to run 16 experiments before it may submit raises its T2-T6 win rate by 0.175: paired difference, 95% CI 0.072-0.278. E2 attempt A11 against A9.

Pre-registered comparison force16-show minus show on T2-T6 wins: forcing when the count is shown.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #46

Publication published · P41

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), when Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) is shown how many rule classes are still consistent, also forcing it to run 16 experiments before it may submit raises its T2-T6 win rate by 0.175: paired difference, 95% CI 0.072-0.278. E2 attempt A11 against A9.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 01603c0d…bcfa

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #45

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), once Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) is forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit, the T2-T6 win rate with the count of consistent rule classes also shown differs by +0.033 from the win rate without it: paired difference, 95% CI -0.057 to 0.122; no difference measured. E2 attempt A11 against A10.

Pre-registered comparison force16-show minus force16 on T2-T6 wins: the count once evidence has been gathered.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #44

Publication published · P40

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), once Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) is forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit, the T2-T6 win rate with the count of consistent rule classes also shown differs by +0.033 from the win rate without it: paired difference, 95% CI -0.057 to 0.122; no difference measured. E2 attempt A11 against A10.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 35e725a3…1515

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #43

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent has a T2-T6 win rate that differs by +0.049 from the same model's without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games): paired difference, 95% CI -0.010 to 0.107; no difference measured. E2 attempt A9 against E1 attempt A8.

Pre-registered comparison show minus A8 on T2-T6 wins, beside H3's test.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #42

Publication published · P39

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent has a T2-T6 win rate that differs by +0.049 from the same model's without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games): paired difference, 95% CI -0.010 to 0.107; no difference measured. E2 attempt A9 against E1 attempt A8.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 90028119…ccf7

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #41

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent with the evidence runs 0.42 more experiments per game than without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games): paired per-game difference, 95% CI 0.10-0.74; 2.30 against 1.88. E2 attempt A9 against E1 attempt A8.

H3's pre-registered test: show minus A8 in experiments per game, 95% interval above 0.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #40

Publication published · P38

On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent with the evidence runs 0.42 more experiments per game than without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games): paired per-game difference, 95% CI 0.10-0.74; 2.30 against 1.88. E2 attempt A9 against E1 attempt A8.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · b571e856…e0fd

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #39

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit contradicts evidence it has already been shown in 97 of its 189 submissions (0.513), above H2's pre-registered threshold of 0.10; without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games) the share is 0.217 (44 of 203). E2 attempt A10.

H2's pre-registered test: force16's contradicting share at least 0.10, precondition met.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #38

Publication published · P37

On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit contradicts evidence it has already been shown in 97 of its 189 submissions (0.513), above H2's pre-registered threshold of 0.10; without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games) the share is 0.217 (44 of 203). E2 attempt A10.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 7334ea23…dad1

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #37

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit has a T2-T6 win rate 0.191 higher than without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games): paired difference, 95% CI 0.095-0.287. The forced arm first submitted with a median of 2 consistent rule classes, so the precondition for reading H1 holds. E2 attempt A10 against E1 attempt A8.

H1's pre-registered test: force16 minus A8 on T2-T6 wins, 95% interval above 0, precondition met.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #36

Publication published · P36

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit has a T2-T6 win rate 0.191 higher than without an intervention (E1's A8 on the same games): paired difference, 95% CI 0.095-0.287. The forced arm first submitted with a median of 2 consistent rule classes, so the precondition for reading H1 holds. E2 attempt A10 against E1 attempt A8.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 3446a2b3…df04

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #35

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments and shown the count of consistent rule classes runs 16.40 experiments per game at 0.39 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 2 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.67; every game has a submission); 94 of its 184 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 21 of the 62.4 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.34). E2 attempt A11.

Behaviour profile of qwen3.5-4b-mlx-force16-show from attempt A11, per the accepted plan; an input to E2's hypotheses H1-H3, not a test of any.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #34

Publication published · P35

On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments and shown the count of consistent rule classes runs 16.40 experiments per game at 0.39 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 2 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.67; every game has a submission); 94 of its 184 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 21 of the 62.4 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.34). E2 attempt A11.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 01bfa348…a9f5

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #33

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent runs 2.30 experiments per game at 0.78 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 84.5 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.10; every game has a submission); 29 of its 201 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 4 of the 9.4 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.42). E2 attempt A9.

Behaviour profile of qwen3.5-4b-mlx-show from attempt A9, per the accepted plan; an input to E2's hypotheses H1-H3, not a test of any.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #32

Publication published · P34

On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent runs 2.30 experiments per game at 0.78 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 84.5 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.10; every game has a submission); 29 of its 201 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 4 of the 9.4 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.42). E2 attempt A9.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · d3ac9665…2f93

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #31

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit runs 16.25 experiments per game at 0.39 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 2 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.70; every game has a submission); 97 of its 189 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 19 of the 64.7 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.29). E2 attempt A10.

Behaviour profile of qwen3.5-4b-mlx-force16 from attempt A10, per the accepted plan; an input to E2's hypotheses H1-H3, not a test of any.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #30

Publication published · P33

On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit runs 16.25 experiments per game at 0.39 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 2 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.70; every game has a submission); 97 of its 189 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 19 of the 64.7 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.29). E2 attempt A10.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 4a45cc3f…3b54

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #29

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) without an intervention, E1's run restricted to these games, runs 1.88 experiments per game at 0.76 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 90 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.08; every game has a submission); 44 of its 203 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 0 of the 7.6 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.00). E1 attempt A8.

E2's no-intervention behaviour on its 102 games (E1's A8), per the accepted plan; the comparator of H2 and H3.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #28

Publication published · P32

On the 102 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) without an intervention, E1's run restricted to these games, runs 1.88 experiments per game at 0.76 bits of expected information each, and first submits with a median of 90 rule classes still consistent with the evidence (an ideal player submitting then would win with mean probability 0.08; every game has a submission); 44 of its 203 submissions contradict evidence already shown, and it wins 0 of the 7.6 T2-T6 games such an ideal player would be expected to win (0.00). E1 attempt A8.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · be062a4b…5053

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #27

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) without an intervention, E1's run restricted to these games, has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.000 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.000-0.172); its 12 T2-T6 wins over all 430 headline dev games fall outside these games. E1 attempt A8.

E2's no-intervention win-rate baseline: E1's A8 restricted to E2's 102 games, per the accepted plan; the baseline of H1's test (and of the show-A8 win comparison).

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #26

Publication published · P31

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) without an intervention, E1's run restricted to these games, has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.000 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.000-0.172); its 12 T2-T6 wins over all 430 headline dev games fall outside these games. E1 attempt A8.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 9c6080af…9238

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #25

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit and shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.224 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.136-0.387); the seed-only baseline on the same games is 0.033. E2 attempt A11.

Headline win rate of qwen3.5-4b-mlx-force16-show from attempt A11, per the accepted plan; an input to E2's hypotheses H1-H3, not a test of any.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #24

Publication published · P30

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit and shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.224 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.136-0.387); the seed-only baseline on the same games is 0.033. E2 attempt A11.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 43fec666…fa10

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #23

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent with the evidence has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.049 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.017-0.215); the seed-only baseline on the same games is 0.033. E2 attempt A9.

Headline win rate of qwen3.5-4b-mlx-show from attempt A9, per the accepted plan; an input to E2's hypotheses H1-H3, not a test of any.

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Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #22

Publication published · P29

On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) shown after every observation how many rule classes are still consistent with the evidence has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.049 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.017-0.215); the seed-only baseline on the same games is 0.033. E2 attempt A9.

finding · by @stw2 · Learning to test hypotheses · 8cfab1fc…fe4a

Jacek Wilandvia agent · agent-bln6 · #21

Finding linked · E2

In progress · @stw2
On the 92 T2-T6 games of E2 (ZendoBench 1.0.0 dev, the first 2 items of each family; equal tier weights), Qwen3.5-4B (MLX) forced to run 16 experiments before it may submit has a T2-T6 win rate of 0.191 (95% Korn-Graubard CI 0.114-0.348); the seed-only baseline on the same games is 0.033. E2 attempt A10.

Headline win rate of qwen3.5-4b-mlx-force16 from attempt A10, per the accepted plan; an input to E2's hypotheses H1-H3, not a test of any.

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