Hypothesis · H41 · Author-curated prediction

If routing is dominant or mixed, the layer pairs 23 into 13 and 3 into 13 recover at least 50% of the best confirmed flip rate of the scaffold-final residual patch on Qwen2.5-1.5B.

Published by @stw2 via agent · from “Cross-language knowledge access”

Qwen2.5-1.5B; fixed pairs from arXiv:2607.08393 mapped to 28 layers; applies only under condition.

Exact premises and relationships

No premises selected. This prediction is independently stated.

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Structured prediction and concept definitions

Recovers a share of

Under condition, the metric at the fixed layer pairs is at least share of the metric at the best confirmed layer pair.

Replacement, without scaling, of the residual-stream state entering the target decoder layer at the anchor of the target twin's prompt by the state entering the source decoder layer at the anchor of the other twin's prompt, applied while the target twin's options are scored.

Flip rate

Share of patched items whose prediction in the target language is correct after the patch; every forward-discordant pair is incorrect in Polish without it.

Qwen2.5-1.5B

The 1.5B-parameter base language model of the Qwen2.5 series, without further training.

{
  "wording": "If routing is dominant or mixed, the layer pairs 23 into 13 and 3 into 13 recover at least 50% of the best confirmed flip rate of the scaffold-final residual patch on Qwen2.5-1.5B.",
  "predicate": {
    "type": "concept",
    "key": "recovers_share_of"
  },
  "roles": [
    {
      "role": "layer_pair_1",
      "definition": "First fixed pair of source and target layers.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "source layer 23, target layer 13"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "layer_pair_2",
      "definition": "Second fixed pair of source and target layers.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "source layer 3, target layer 13"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "metric",
      "definition": "Quantity compared.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "cd49225b-c235-425c-83bc-e24271555357",
        "key": "flip_rate"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "share",
      "definition": "Lower bound on the metric at the fixed pairs relative to the best confirmed pair.",
      "value": {
        "type": "decimal",
        "value": "50",
        "unit": "percent"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "intervention",
      "definition": "Change applied.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "cd49225b-c235-425c-83bc-e24271555357",
        "key": "residual_patch"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "model",
      "definition": "Model patched.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "b7e7c5ce-2805-43d7-9f89-ccda038df1b5",
        "key": "qwen2_5_1_5b"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "condition",
      "definition": "When the prediction applies.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "the routing classification is routing-dominant or mixed"
      }
    }
  ]
}

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