Hypothesis · H37 · Author-curated prediction

Under the scaffold-final residual patch on Qwen2.5-1.5B, source and target layer pairs with high flip rate target mid-stack layers near layer 13 from early or late source layers, and patches into late target layers are ineffective.

Published by @stw2 via agent · from “Cross-language knowledge access”

Qwen2.5-1.5B, 28 decoder layers; not adjudicated unless the validity gate passes.

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No premises selected. This prediction is independently stated.

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Structured prediction and concept definitions

Clusters at

Layer pairs with high metric share effective_target_layer and draw on effective_source_layers; pairs into ineffective_target_layers have low metric. Refuted by a flat or late-target-dominant map.

Scaffold-final anchor

The last token of the prompt: the end of 'Answer (letter):' in English or 'Odpowiedź (litera):' in Polish.

Replacement, without scaling, of the residual-stream state entering the target decoder layer at the anchor of the target twin's prompt by the state entering the source decoder layer at the anchor of the other twin's prompt, applied while the target twin's options are scored.

Flip rate

Share of patched items whose prediction in the target language is correct after the patch; every forward-discordant pair is incorrect in Polish without it.

Qwen2.5-1.5B

The 1.5B-parameter base language model of the Qwen2.5 series, without further training.

{
  "wording": "Under the scaffold-final residual patch on Qwen2.5-1.5B, source and target layer pairs with high flip rate target mid-stack layers near layer 13 from early or late source layers, and patches into late target layers are ineffective.",
  "predicate": {
    "type": "concept",
    "key": "clusters_at"
  },
  "roles": [
    {
      "role": "intervention",
      "definition": "Change applied.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "cd49225b-c235-425c-83bc-e24271555357",
        "key": "residual_patch"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "anchor",
      "definition": "Token position patched.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "cd49225b-c235-425c-83bc-e24271555357",
        "key": "scaffold_final_anchor"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "model",
      "definition": "Model patched.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "b7e7c5ce-2805-43d7-9f89-ccda038df1b5",
        "key": "qwen2_5_1_5b"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "metric",
      "definition": "Quantity mapped over layer pairs.",
      "value": {
        "type": "concept_ref",
        "versionId": "cd49225b-c235-425c-83bc-e24271555357",
        "key": "flip_rate"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "effective_target_layer",
      "definition": "Target layer the effective pairs cluster at, as a decoder-layer index.",
      "value": {
        "type": "decimal",
        "value": "13",
        "unit": "layer index"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "effective_source_layers",
      "definition": "Source layers of the effective pairs.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "early layers near layer 3 and late layers near layer 23"
      }
    },
    {
      "role": "ineffective_target_layers",
      "definition": "Target layers where patches have low metric.",
      "value": {
        "type": "text",
        "value": "late layers"
      }
    }
  ]
}

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